Daily Comments

July 16, 2019


The S&P is trading to slight gains in a quiet start to today’s session. The bias remains to the upside but we have seen a loss on momentum. Traders will be focused on the start of earning season which swings into full mode starting with today’s bank earnings. This morning’s Retail Sales were hotter than expected and as always when we get a strong economic number, doubts roll through Wall Street about the Fed’s commitment to lowering rates. China posted its worst quarterly GDP data in decades, meaning their slowing is real.
For today, the market is stuck in a very narrow trading range. Something will kick it out and for now, that’s likely an earnings report. A break below 2998-3002 could bring additional selling pressures.


Crude prices are slightly better on the session as the market rebounds from yesterday’s sell-off. The market saw relief after Hurricane Barry past through the Gulf of Mexico with RBOB gasoline seeing a sharp downside reaction. We are looking for another weekly draw in crude inventories and if that’s the case, it should be a supportive factor. Iranian troubles are still a market force and can’t be ignored.
For today, resistance at 6000-6050 should be in force as the market seeks its proper balance.


Treasury Notes are trading lower on the session after an unexpected hotter Retail Sales report this morning. The strong economic data could allow the Fed to hold off their so call commitment to a lower interest rate policy.
For today, a support check at 12616-12622 is back in play. 


The corn market is lower and now has dropped nearly 30 cents since Sunday nights opening highs. Better weather forecasts and too many longs make for increased volatility. We are in a full full blown weather market and we still have no idea about final yield. But the crop is already seriously damaged and its going to be difficult to see a complete recovery.
For today, support around the 435 level should be enough to turn prices higher.

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